When we released Team Rubicon’s April Fools’ video about asteroid YR24, we expected a mix of reactions—laughter, curiosity, maybe even a little confusion. And we got all of it.
For those who haven’t seen it, the video features a mock mission to confront a real asteroid—2024 YR24—that has a small chance (1%) of colliding with Earth in 2032. Yes, it’s real. No, we don’t actually have a base on the moon. But what we do have is a serious message that we tucked into all that humor: Disasters don’t wait. Neither do we.
This post is about the why behind the video, and why disaster preparedness—no matter the threat—is always worth taking seriously.
Yes, the Asteroid Is Real
The asteroid featured in our video, in News & Stories, and on our socials isn’t a figment of some scriptwriter’s imagination. Designated 2024 YR24, it was discovered on December 30, 2023. NASA and ESA are tracking it because there’s a roughly 1% chance that it could collide with Earth on December 22, 2032.
Now, to be clear, a 1% chance isn’t high. It means we can almost certainly breathe easy. But it’s not zero. And this situation brings up a broader question: When is the right time to prepare?
The 0% to 100% Window
One of the core ideas we wanted to highlight in the video—and the reason I wanted to write this piece—is simple: the space between 0% and 100% probability is where action lives.
Whether the risk is 1% or 99%, the time to prepare is before it happens. That applies to wildfires, floods, hurricanes, earthquakes—and yes, even asteroids. Because if you wait until the odds hit 100%, you’ve already run out of time.
We like to think, “That won’t happen here.” But it does. An electrical fire in one home sparks a neighborhood-wide wildfire. A tornado cuts through a city skyline, not just the plains.
And major earthquakes? They don’t only happen in California—as Myanmar was impacted by a catastrophic 7.7 magnitude quake.
Which brings us back to asteroid YR24. With only a 1% chance of impact, it seems distant—unlikely. But “unlikely” doesn’t mean impossible. And if we’ve learned anything, it’s that the unexpected can and does happen.
Preparedness lives in that in-between. And what we choose to do there—between “probably not” and “just in case”—can make all the difference when the unexpected becomes reality.
Why Disaster Preparedness Matters More Than Ever
According to FEMA, nearly 60% of Americans are not prepared for any kind of disaster. That statistic is staggering—and telling. It means most people lack even the basics: a go-bag, an evacuation plan, or even an understanding of what risks exist in their own region.
At Team Rubicon, we see what happens when people aren’t ready. We respond to disasters across the country and around the world. We meet folks in the hardest moments of their lives—many of whom never thought it would happen to them.
Preparedness doesn’t eliminate disaster, but it gives us a buffer. It gives us options. It gives us time.
What Astronauts Can Teach Us
One of my personal heroes is astronaut Chris Hadfield. His book, An Astronaut’s Guide to Life on Earth, is one I come back to again and again. In it, he writes:
“Preparation is not only about managing external risks, but about limiting the likelihood that you’ll unwittingly add to them.”
Hadfield trained for decades to handle high-risk scenarios that might never occur. Most didn’t. But when one did—a dangerous ammonia leak aboard the ISS—his team was ready. Why? Because they prepared for it. Repeatedly.
That same mindset applies to life on Earth. Being prepared isn’t about being paranoid. It’s about reducing harm, staying grounded in reality, and being ready to support others when they need it most.
The View from the Ground: FEMA’s Take
Preparedness is more than a personal decision—it’s a community imperative. Past FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said it clearly: “We must build sustainable, long-lasting resilience so our communities and our nations are able to withstand disasters and are ready to respond and recover from whatever the future holds.”
That resilience starts with the individual. And it grows stronger when more of us take steps toward readiness.
Disaster Preparedness Starts With a Go-Bag
I get it: “disaster preparedness” can sound like an overwhelming project. But it doesn’t have to be. One of the easiest, most effective things you can do today is build a go-bag. It’s your personal emergency kit. Something you can grab quickly if you need to evacuate.
Here’s what Team Rubicon recommends you include in a disaster preparedness go-bag:
• One gallon of water per person, per day (for at least three days)
• Non-perishable food
• First-aid kit
• Flashlight and extra batteries
• Multi-tool or utility knife
• Copies of important documents (IDs, insurance, medical) in a waterproof pouch
• Battery-powered or hand-crank radio
• Extra phone charger or power bank
• Local maps and emergency contact numbers
You can build this over time. Add a few items each week. Store it in a backpack or a plastic bin. The point is to have it before you need it.
The Bigger Picture, and Real Cost of Being Unprepared
In 2023 alone, natural disasters caused more than $165 billion in damages in the United States. That number isn’t just financial—it represents lives disrupted, homes lost, and communities forced to rebuild.
Disaster preparedness won’t stop the next storm, quake, or fire. But it can change the outcome. It means fewer lives lost, faster recovery, and greater resilience.
Which brings me back to the message at the heart of our video: Disasters don’t wait. Neither do we.
Let’s Keep the Conversation Going
Maybe you’ve already got your go-bag ready. Maybe you’ve been through something that changed the way you think about emergencies. Or maybe this is the nudge you needed to start taking those first disaster preparedness steps.
Whatever your story, we’d love to hear it! Tag Team Rubicon in your own preparedness posts. Let’s keep the conversation going.
Because when it comes to disasters, we don’t get to choose if—only how well—we’re ready when they come. Let’s be prepared, together!
Jonathen E. Davis has written about everything from fire mitigation to the Greyshirt experience. He is a Greyshirt, U.S. Navy veteran, 2020 Clay Hunt Fellow, and the Head of Content for Team Rubicon.
