The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season proved that devastation isn’t only about the number of storms that make landfall in the U.S., but also about the punch they pack. The 2024 hurricane predictions warned of a historically active and damaging season—and reality came close, if not worse. While the total number of storms fell slightly below the upper forecasts, the actual impact of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season proved devastating.
Forecasts from NOAA and other major meteorological centers projected an above-average season, and 2024 hurricane predictions largely got it right—particularly in terms of major hurricanes and total damage. According to the National Hurricane Center, there were five billion-dollar hurricane events in 2024, and the season generated an estimated $124 billion in damage, making it the third costliest hurricane season in the past quarter century, behind the $339.2 billion year of 2017, which produced Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria, and the $264.7 billion year of 2005, when Hurricane Katrina made landfall in the U.S.
2024 Hurricane Predictions vs. Reality: What Forecasters Got Right
When forecasters issued their 2024 hurricane predictions that spring, the forecasts were ominous. NOAA warned of an above-normal season with 17 to 25 named storms, while Colorado State University initially predicted 23 named storms before revising upward to 25 by July. Other major forecasting centers issued similarly dire warnings.
The actual numbers tell a nuanced story:
Named tropical storms in 2024: 18
From Tropical Storm Alberto in mid-June to Tropical Storm Sarah in mid-November, 2024’s 18 named tropical storms fell within NOAA’s range of 17 to 25 named storms, but below CSU’s revised forecast of 25.
Total 2024 Hurricanes: 11
The near-dozen hurricanes within the Atlantic basin in 2024 closely matched most predictions of 8 to 13.
Total Major Hurricanes: 5
CSU nailed its 2024 predictions for major hurricanes, and the actuality fell within all forecast ranges.
Most forecasting groups successfully identified the above-normal nature of the season, according to the forecast verification analysis. The specific count of named storms proved challenging to predict accurately, but major hurricane predictions showed good skill.
Fewer Tropical Storms in 2024, and More Damage
Despite producing fewer named storms than some forecasts suggested, the 2024 season became a costly reminder that quality matters more than quantity when it comes to hurricane impact. The season’s economic toll landed at an estimated $124 billion in damages, driven by several particularly destructive storms.
When Hurricane Beryl, which started off as the earliest Category 5 Hurricane on record, made landfall in Texas on July 8 as a Category 1 Hurricane it caused an estimated $7.2 billion in damages. Then, Hurricanes Debby and Francine contributed another $3.8 billion in economic losses.
Hurricane Helene emerged as the season’s most devastating event, both in terms of economic impact and human costs. According to NOAA, Helene was responsible for at least 250 fatalities in the United States, including at least 176 direct deaths, making it the deadliest hurricane in the contiguous U.S. since Category 4 Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The Category 4 Helene caused an estimated $78.7 billion in damages according to the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, making it the seventh costliest U.S. hurricane behind Katrina, Harvey, Ian, Maria, Sandy, and Ida.
Hurricane Milton followed quickly on the heels of Hurricane Helene, making landfall on October 9 at Siesta Key in Florida, bringing with it 5- to 10-foot storm surge and spawning tornadoes across the state. The Category 3 Hurricane also resulted in an estimated $34.3 billion in damages.
Early Records and Late-Season Surprises
When the 2024 hurricane predictions were released, forecasters didn’t have a record-breaking early hurricane listed on their cards. But that’s what happened when Hurricane Beryl became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record on July 1, and the second Category 5 on record during the month of July in the Atlantic Ocean. The season also featured multiple rapid intensification events and extended activity into November.
The mixed accuracy of 2024 hurricane predictions highlights both the progress and ongoing challenges in seasonal hurricane forecasting. Meteorologists successfully identified the season’s above-normal activity and accurately predicted major hurricane counts, though several factors made 2024 particularly challenging to forecast:
- Competing climate signals during the transition to La Niña conditions
- Record-warm sea surface temperatures modulated by Saharan dust outbreaks
- Unusual wind shear patterns and persistent high-pressure systems
Looking Ahead: Lessons Learned from 2024’s Predictions and Hurricanes
The 2024 season reinforced an important lesson for coastal communities: With the decommissioning of the NOAA Billion Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters database this year, it will no longer be possible for the media or insurance industry to track the economic costs of extreme weather. As such, communities in and around America’s hurricane zone should be prepared to take hurricane predictions and seasonal forecasts especially seriously. That’s especially true as in 2024 the relatively accurate major hurricane predictions proved more valuable than total storm numbers since major hurricanes typically account for the majority of damage and casualties.
The Bottom Line
While the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season may not have reached the upper bounds of some predictions, it more than delivered on forecasters’ warnings of significant activity and impact. The season serves as a reminder that in hurricane forecasting, getting the big picture right—predicting above-normal activity and major hurricane potential—may be more important than hitting precise storm counts.
For coastal communities, the message remains clear: preparation based on seasonal outlooks can save lives and property, regardless of whether the final tally matches initial predictions exactly.
